Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.